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The Modelling-Paper Mafiosi – NEWPAPER24

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The Modelling-Paper Mafiosi

2021-03-02 06:00:00

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John Edmunds is on high of the world. He is one of many modelling-paper mafiosi. The London, U.Okay., professor is a key authorities advisor on COVID-19-related insurance policies. Edmunds additionally was a co-author of one of many main modelling papers1 which have been used to persuade the plenty that vigilance towards new variant B.1.1.7 ought to be their high precedence.

And Edmunds co-wrote an influential January 21, 2021 report2 that concluded, “There’s a sensible risk that VOC B.1.1.7 is related to an elevated threat of demise in comparison with non-VOC viruses.”

As well as, he speaks typically to reporters in regards to the deadliness3 of the brand new variant.4 Edmunds tells them, for instance, {that a} “catastrophe”5 would ensue if lockdowns are eased too quickly, as a result of what first should be accomplished is to “vaccinate a lot, a lot, rather more extensively than the aged.”6

Comply with the Funds

Edmunds occurs to be the partner of somebody who, no less than till April 2020, was an worker of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and held shares within the firm. (Edmunds does not disclose this in any of his media interviews that I’ve learn and watched. He additionally does not disclose his personal inventory holdings.)

In keeping with an April 2020 Every day Telegraph7 article,8 Edmunds’s spouse is Jeanne Pimenta and he or she works for GSK. The Every day Telegraph article states Edmunds asserted his associate had lately resigned from GSK. So it is unclear whether or not Pimenta at present works there or not.

I did slightly digging and located that the one Jeanne Pimenta LinkedIn profile9 signifies she’s at present director of epidemiology at GSK, whereas Jeanne Pimenta’s ResearchGate profile10 says she’s an epidemiologist at BioMarin Pharmaceutical. (Extra about Edmunds being married to a gift or former Glaxo worker within the subsequent part of this article.)

In any case, GSK’s monetary success is skyrocketing. On February 311 the corporate introduced it is collaborating with mRNA-vaccine firm CureVac to spend 150 million euros — roughly $180 million — to make vaccines for the brand new variants.

That successfully offers them first-entrant benefit in vaccines for the brand new variants. And that very same February 3 information launch12 touts the new-variant vaccines as additionally in a position to function “booster” pictures after the preliminary rounds of vaccination. As well as, GSK joined forces with CureVac to pump out, later this 12 months, 100 million doses of CureVac’s “first-generation” COVID-19 vaccine referred to as “CvnCoV.”13

Not solely that: this fall14 GSK along with one other worldwide pharmaceutical agency, Sanofi, are scheduled to start out producing what may grow to be as much as 1 billion doses of their COVID-19 vaccine yearly.15 GSK’s understated February 3 announcement16 of its This fall 2020 monetary outcomes mentioned it is going to “proceed to anticipate significant enchancment in revenues and margins” as a result of they’re “constructing a high-value biopharma pipeline.”

Observe that GSK and different pharma corporations17 like Moderna and Pfizer18 aren’t answerable for injury and compensation funds to individuals significantly injured and killed by COVID-19 vaccines. Governments19 can pay as an alternative — that’s, if these injured and killed and their family members are in a position to beat the lengthy odds20 and get any compensation in any respect.

And a outstanding February 8, 2021,21 investigative report within the German information outlet Welt Am Sonntag (which interprets to World on Sunday) reveals one other impetus for the wildly inaccurate modelling governments use to maintain populations in a state of worry and management.

The German article reveals that in March 2020 authorities officers enlisted “main scientists from a number of analysis institutes and universities. Collectively, they have been to supply a [mathematical-modelling] paper that might function legitimization for additional powerful political measures.”

These scientists obediently wrote a modelling paper tailor-made to the federal government’s directions. The then-secret paper asserted that if lockdown measures have been lifted instantly, as much as 1 million Germans would die from COVID-19, some “agonizingly at residence, gasping for breath,” after being turned away from overflowing hospitals.

Edmunds Is Deeply Invested within the Vaccine World

There’s nonetheless extra to the net of cash and affect surrounding Edmunds and different modelling-paper mafiosi, together with Neil Ferguson.

The primary new-variant modelling paper Edmunds co-wrote, which was posted on December 23, 202022 was co-authored together with his fellow members of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Ailments on the London College of Hygiene & Tropical Medication (LSHTM). Folks within the middle’s COVID-19 Working Group additionally contributed.

The modelling paper was posted on the e-journal medrχiv, which publishes solely non-peer-reviewed papers. The journal is the creation of a company led by Fb head Mark Zuckerberg and his spouse.23 I focus on medrχiv and the Zuckerberg connection in my February 3 article24 on the baselessness for the modelling papers that declare the brand new variants are very harmful.

Edmunds is also dean of the LSHTM’s School of Epidemiology and Inhabitants Well being. I contacted the establishment’s media-relations division to request an interview with one of many December 23, 2020, modelling paper’s authors. I did not obtain a response.

In a February 2017 video interview,25 Edmunds enthused that the LSHTM makes a speciality of each side of vaccine improvement, from primary science to large-scale medical trials.

Within the video he additionally touts utilizing mathematical modelling as a great way to indicate that vaccines defend people and society. (And amongst different issues he describes his group’s efforts in giving youngsters flu vaccines and — together with Public Well being England — selling human papillomavirus [HPV] vaccines for women and boys.)

As well as, Edmunds is a key member of the UK Vaccine Community26 (which till lately was generally known as the UK Vaccines Community — the URL for the group has “UK Vaccines Community”27 in it).

And he is a member of the U.Okay. authorities’s Science Advisory Group for Emergencies28 (SAGE), which supplies COVID-measure recommendation — a lot of it associated to the unprecedentedly forceful push for mass vaccination — to U.Okay. prime minister Boris Johnson and his cupboard.

On high of that, Edmunds is a member of the U.Okay. authorities’s New and Rising Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG).29 It really works hand in hand with SAGE, and it additionally closely promotes vaccination.

And as talked about earlier, Edmunds is married to a present or former GSK worker. A 2015 article that Edmunds co-authored states below “Competing pursuits” for Edmunds that “My associate works for GSK.”30 Equally, on the NERVTAG web site’s conflict-disclosure pages — which for some purpose have not been up to date since October 201731 — it reveals that Edmunds’s partner works for GSK.

As a fast different be aware, the “Creator Contributions and Acknowledgements” part of the PDF of the December 23 modelling evaluation32 of B.1.1.7 (pages 15 and 16) reveals that just about the entire paper’s authors and members of the modelling middle’s COVID-19 Working Group obtain funding from the Invoice & Melinda Gates Basis (BMGF) and/or Wellcome Belief. (By the way in which, a seek for Wellcome Belief yields the Wellcome web site.33)

And there is extra to the Edmunds story. Amongst different of my finds: he is additionally on the Scientific Advisory Board34 for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Improvements (CEPI).35 CEPI was created primarily by the BMGF, the World Financial Discussion board and the main pharma firm Wellcome.

CEPI’s web site states36 it was “launched in Davos [at the meeting of the World Economic Forum in January] 2017 to develop vaccines to cease future epidemics. Our mission is to speed up the event of vaccines towards rising infectious illnesses and allow equitable entry to those vaccines for individuals throughout outbreaks.”

Investigative journalist Vanessa Beeley final 12 months wrote a must-read two-part37 evaluation of the ties between the important thing people, establishments, corporations and funders of the UK’s COVID-19 response. She talked about that GSK is working with CEPI to develop COVID-19 vaccines. This alliance remains to be going robust38 in the present day.

Observe additionally that the LSHTM’s School of Epidemiology and Inhabitants Well being, which Edmunds heads, is primarily funded by the BMGF and the Gavi alliance. (Gavi promotes mass vaccination of individuals around the globe — together with by quarterbacking the COVAX program.

Gavi’s greatest funders embody the BMGF. Medical doctors With out Borders has criticized Gavi39 for being “aimed extra at supporting drug-industry wishes to advertise new merchandise than at discovering essentially the most environment friendly and sustainable means for combating the illnesses of poverty.”)

BMGF funding for the LSHTM’s School of Epidemiology and Inhabitants Well being is rising very quick. For instance, BMGF’s new grants to the school rose from $4.9 million in 2013-2014 (see web page 14 [p. 9 in the PDF] of the LSHTM’s 2014 annual report40) to $13.19 million in 2015-2016 (see web page 14 [p. 9 in the PDF] of the LSHTM’s 2016 annual report41) (high new analysis grants to every school on the LSHTM stopped being reported within the annual experiences after 2017).

Funding from the BMGF to the LSHTM as a complete was 30.2 million kilos ($40.2 million) in 2017-2018 (see web page 9 [p. 6 in the PDF] within the faculty’s 2018 annual report42). By the way in which, the LSHTM additionally has a Vaccines Manufacturing Innovation Centre.43 It develops, exams and commercializes vaccines. (I could not discover any info on the place the vaccines middle’s funding comes from.)

The vaccines middle additionally performs affiliated actions like combating “vaccine hesitancy.” The latter contains the Vaccine Confidence Mission.44 The mission’s acknowledged function is,45 amongst different issues, “to offer evaluation and steering for early response and engagement with the general public to make sure sustained confidence in vaccines and immunisation.”

The Vaccine Confidence Mission’s director is LSHTM professor Heidi Larson.46 For greater than a decade she’s been researching the way to fight vaccine hesitancy. LSHTM47 underpins the mission, which is also a member of the WHO’s Vaccine Security Web.48

Extra Modelling Mafiosi

This is details about two different members of this membership:

Public Well being England (PHE) issued its first detailed report on the brand new variant in late December 202049 and continues to offer updates.50 None of their experiences are peer-reviewed. One of many highest-profile co-authors of the PHE experiences is PHE director Susan Hopkins.51 She’s additionally a professor of infectious illnesses at Imperial School London.52 The school receives tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} a 12 months from the BMGF.

See for instance this grant,53 this one,54 this one55 and this one.56 (I emailed PHE media relations to request an interview about PHE’s new-variants experiences. PHE communications individual Zahra Vindhani responded, “Dr. Hopkins will not have the capability for this within the upcoming weeks, and we aren’t in a position to verify anybody else for this both.”)

PHE is guided in its method to vaccination by PHE’s “Strategic Precedence 1” for combating infectious illnesses in 2020 to 2025. It’s to “Optimise vaccine provision and scale back vaccine preventable illnesses in England” (see p. 9 of PHE’s Infectious Illness Technique 2020-202557).

Neil Ferguson is a co-author of the PHE experiences and in addition of a extensively quoted December 31 modelling paper58 on the dangerousness of B.1.1.7. He is appearing director of the Imperial School London-based Vaccine Impression Modelling Consortium.59

Ferguson’s modelling has been extraordinarily defective once more over time. This has been completely documented. For instance, as investigative journalist Beeley wrote in Half One60 of a two-part investigative report in April-Could 2020, Ferguson’s modelling over-estimated by about 3 million-fold the demise toll from the chicken flu, also referred to as H5N1.

In consequence, some huge cash was made by bird-flu-vaccine producers, starting from Roche (for its now-infamous, ineffective Tamiflu61) to Sanofi,62 they usually have been used extensively.63

Ferguson additionally grossly overestimated the results of swine flu, or H1N1. In consequence, thousands and thousands of individuals have been needlessly given GSK’s Pandemrix.64 It brought on mind injury, primarily narcolepsy65 and cataplexy, in a whole bunch if not hundreds of vaccine recipients, principally youngsters. The pharma big was granted no fault in any injury claims.66

Subsequently the British authorities paid greater than 60 million kilos (roughly $80 million at 2017 conversion charges) to victims.67 (And as talked about earlier on this article, GSK and different pharma corporations68 are equally protected against having to pay damages to individuals injured or killed by their COVID-19 vaccines.)

Ferguson is also a member, along with Edmunds and others, of SAGE.69

One other group he is a member of is the extremely influential NERVTAG.70 It is the group that issued the January 21, 202171 warning, talked about earlier on this article, that B.1.1.7 is lethal.

Ferguson is a NERVTAG member regardless that he was reported to have resigned final spring72 after being caught visiting together with his married lover when everybody in England was presupposed to solely be having contact with members of their very own households (primarily based largely on Ferguson’s modelling and his urging the federal government to lock the nation down).

Ferguson is also a member73 of the UK Vaccines Community,74 together with Edmunds and others such because the Community chair Chris Whitty, who’s additionally the U.Okay. authorities’s high COVID-19 adviser.
The community’s focus, in keeping with its web site, “to assist the [U.K.] authorities to determine and shortlist focused funding alternatives for essentially the most promising vaccines and vaccine applied sciences that can assist fight infectious illnesses with epidemic potential, and to deal with structural points associated to the UK’s broader vaccine infrastructure.”

These ties bind Edmunds, Ferguson and Hopkins — together with the remainder of the modelling-paper mafiosi — to the bidding of governments, Massive Pharma, Invoice Gates and different highly effective gamers. They current a picture of being totally dedicated to the general public good, whereas actually actively serving to to destroy it.

Editor’s Observe: It is a reprint of an article by Rosemary Frei. She has a grasp of science in molecular biology from the School of Medication on the College of Calgary and was a contract medical journalist for 22 years. She is now an unbiased investigative journalist in Canada.



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